# ScenarioAtlas AI — llms.txt

> ScenarioAtlas AI is a public intelligence lab that publishes daily geopolitical scenarios with structured uncertainty annotation. Every prediction is tracked. Every miss is published. Trust is earned through transparent scoring.

## What ScenarioAtlas AI Does

ScenarioAtlas AI provides cross-domain scenario analysis covering geopolitics, cyber threats, markets, digital sovereignty, social unrest, and climate/disaster events. Each scenario is annotated with the D/E/M/A protocol (Data Quality, Epistemic uncertainty, Model uncertainty, Aleatoric/irreducible risk), evidence levels (L1–L4), confidence percentages, base-rate anchoring from academic sources, black swan identification, and invalidation triggers. All predictions receive Brier scores on resolution and are published in the public retrotrack.

## D/E/M/A Protocol

- **D (Data Quality):** How complete and reliable is the underlying information?
- **E (Epistemic):** Reducible uncertainty — better analysis could narrow the range.
- **M (Model):** Structural gaps in the analytical framework itself.
- **A (Aleatoric):** Irreducible randomness and black swan events.

## Evidence Levels

- **L1:** Verified data from primary sources
- **L2:** Strong inference from multiple credible sources
- **L3:** Moderate assessment with acknowledged gaps
- **L4:** Speculative — limited or conflicting data

## Key Pages

- Homepage: https://scenarioatlas.ai/
- Methodology (D/E/M/A Framework): https://scenarioatlas.ai/methodology
- All Insights: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/
- Iran-Trump War Prediction 002 (Apr 7-14): https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/iran-trump-2026-002
- Retrotrack #1 — Iran Prediction Scored: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/iran-retrotrack-001
- Quebec 2026 Election Analysis: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/quebec-election-2026
- NK Succession Analysis: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/nk-succession-2026-001
- Iran/Hormuz Crisis Analysis: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/iran-trump-ultimatum-2026-001
- Ukraine Ceasefire Analysis: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/ukraine-ceasefire-architecture-2026-001
- Europe Defense Sovereignty: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/europe-sovereignty-turn-2026-001
- China Rare Earth Leverage: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/china-rare-earth-leverage-2026-001
- China Digital Human Regulation: https://scenarioatlas.ai/research/insights/china-digital-human-regulation-2026-001

## Current Statistics (as of April 6, 2026)

- 8 scenarios published
- 31 predictions tracked
- 8 domains covered
- 1 resolved and scored (Hit Rate 100%, Log Loss 0.916)
- Brier scores published on resolution
- Sources verified in 7+ languages

## Multi-Perspective Analysis

Every major scenario is analyzed through 8 cultural lenses: From the Ground (local-language sources), Western (Reuters, NYT, FT, BBC), BRICS+ (Xinhua, TASS, NDTV), Asia-Pacific (Nikkei, Chosun), EU Institutional (Brussels, ECB), Gulf/MENA (Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya), Americas (AP, Folha, La Nación).

## Enterprise

ScenarioAtlas.ai provides public awareness scenarios. ScenarioAtlas.com (https://scenarioatlas.com) provides enterprise business impact simulation.

## Contact

- X/Twitter: https://x.com/ScenarioAtlas
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scenarioatlas
- Enterprise: https://scenarioatlas.com