Hungary 2026 Election — Retrotrack
TISZA won Hungary's April 12, 2026 parliamentary election with 137 seats (preliminary results, 98% of votes are currently counted) — a constitutional supermajority. Our forecast: 62% TISZA win probability. Brier score: 0.144 — in superforecaster range. Direction correct, slightly underconfident.
Result
| Party | Seats | Vote % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TISZA (Peter Magyar) | 137 | 52.44% | Supermajority |
| Fidesz-KDNP (Viktor Orban) | 56 | 39.15% | Lost |
| Mi Hazank | 6 | 5.77% | — |
Turnout: 79.55% (record high). Majority threshold: 100 seats. Supermajority (2/3): 133 seats. TISZA exceeded both.
Predicted vs Actual
| Scenario | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| TISZA Majority (100+ seats) | 32% | HIT (137 seats, supermajority) |
| TISZA Narrow (85-99 seats) | 30% | — |
| Fidesz Holds (85+ seats) | 28% | — |
| Hung Parliament | 8% | — |
| Fidesz Landslide (110+) | 2% | — |
Direction call: TISZA wins 62% vs Fidesz wins 30% → Correct. TISZA won decisively.
Scoring
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Brier Score | 0.144 | Superforecaster range (<0.20) |
| Log Loss | 0.478 | Good |
| Direction | Correct | TISZA favored, TISZA won |
| Calibration | Underconfident | 62% vs ~70% market |
| Hit Rate | 100% | 1/1 direction calls |
What We Got Right
What We Got Wrong
Lessons Learned
1. Market Calibration Check
When deviating from market consensus, ask: "What's my specific edge?"
Applied: Integrated
2. Structural Changes
Unified opposition vs fragmented is a structural change, not noise. Weight it appropriately in base rates.
Applied: Integrated
3. Base Rate Selection
2022 polling error was context-specific (war shock + fragmented opposition), not a general Hungarian election base rate.
Applied: Integrated
Resolution Tracking
| Prediction | Deadline | Our Call | Outcome | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TISZA wins (majority or plurality) | Apr 12 | 62% | TISZA 137 seats | Yes |
| Fidesz retains power | Apr 12 | 30% | Lost (56 seats) | Correct |
| TISZA wins outright majority (100+) | Apr 12 | 32% | 137 seats | Yes |
| Turnout exceeds 70% | Apr 12 | 55% | 79.55% | Yes |
Verdict
Direction correct. Brier 0.144 is strong. We correctly identified TISZA as favorite and the structural factors favoring change: unified opposition, no war shock, economic discontent, high turnout.
We were underconfident because we anchored on 2022 polling errors without specific edge over market consensus. TISZA's victory was even more decisive than our most optimistic scenario — they achieved a constitutional supermajority, ending 16 years of Fidesz rule.
These lessons have been integrated into our methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the outcome of Hungary's 2026 election?
TISZA (Peter Magyar) won with 137 seats — a constitutional supermajority (2/3). Fidesz got 56 seats, Mi Hazank 6. Turnout was 79.55%, a record.
How accurate was the ScenarioAtlas prediction?
Brier score 0.144 — in superforecaster range (<0.20). Direction correct. We were slightly underconfident (62% vs ~70% market consensus).
What lessons were learned from this prediction?
Three key lessons: (1) Add market calibration check when deviating from consensus, (2) Weight structural changes appropriately, (3) 2022 polling error was context-specific, not a general base rate.
Every prediction scored. Every miss published.