Insights
Daily geopolitical scenarios with structured uncertainty, multi-perspective analysis, and publicly scored accuracy. For executives, investors, and policymakers who need numbers, not opinions.
Iran-US Ceasefire: 52% Extension Probability
Day 50 of US-Israel war on Iran. Ceasefire expires April 23. Our analysis: 52% extended, 35% strikes resume. Mojtaba Khamenei (42 days in role) is the key wild card.
April 19, 2026
Iran-US Ceasefire Extension by April 23
Two-week ceasefire expires Wednesday. 85% of Iran's exports destroyed. Strait of Hormuz closed. Trump claims 'most points agreed.' Our analysis: 52% extension, 35% strikes resume. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is untested under maximum pressure.
April 14, 2026
Fed Rate Cut Before July 2026
CME FedWatch shows 95-100% hold probability for April and June FOMC. Our analysis: 93% hold, 3% cut, 4% hike. Powell defending Fed independence under Trump pressure paradoxically makes cuts less likely.
Hungary 2026 Election — Retrotrack
TISZA won Hungary's election with 137 seats — constitutional supermajority. We predicted 62% probability. Brier 0.144. Direction correct, slightly underconfident.
Iran-Trump War April 14 — Retrotrack
Ceasefire announced April 8-9. Negotiated Pause hit. Brier 0.213. Reality revealed Trump's deadline pattern and China/Pakistan mediation channel.
April 11, 2026
Canada Fuel Tax: Carbon Tax Gone, What's Next?
Carbon tax eliminated March 2025. Federal excise 10¢/L remains. Hidden carbon 7¢/L rising to 17¢/L. Status quo 45%.
Semiconductor Helium Crisis: AI Chips, Memory, Storage
Qatar offline. DRAM +95% QoQ record. Managed Shortage 40%, Helium Crunch 35%. DDR4 $33.56. Ceasefire fragile.
April 10, 2026
Hungary 2026: TISZA vs Fidesz
TISZA 62%, Fidesz 28%. Unified opposition vs machine politics. Resolves April 12.
April 9, 2026
Canada Online News Act (C-18): Impact and Repeal Probability
Google pays $100M/year. Meta blocks all news since 2023. 85% engagement drop. Status quo 40%, public funding 25%, repeal 18%.
April 7, 2026
Retrotrack #1: What We Got Right and Wrong — Trump Iran Ultimatum
First scored prediction. Partial escalation correct. Hit Rate 100%. Log Loss 0.916 — right direction, under-confident. Three lessons learned.
Iran-Trump War: What Happens by April 14?
Post-Kharg. 35% power plants hit, 30% Trump declares victory, 20% Iran retaliates. Power plants = war-crime threshold. 5 predictions tracked.
April 6, 2026
North Korean Succession: Kim Ju-ae as Designated Heir
Kim Ju-ae at 35% — highest single scenario. Base rates: 3% female succession, 12% child heirs, 29% regency survival. Five scenarios, 4 predictions tracked.
Quebec 2026 Election: CAQ Collapse — Who Forms Government?
CAQ: 90 seats → 9% polls. PQ-PLQ tied at 33%. PQ minority 35%, PQ majority 30%, PLQ 22%. Sovereignty question is key wildcard.
April 5, 2026
China Rare Earth Leverage: Four Scenarios for Supply Chain Warfare
94% of permanent magnet production. 70% of refining. Extraterritorial controls. 40% trade war revival (rare earths +50-100%), 30% supply chain realignment.
Europe Sovereignty Turn: Four Scenarios for Defense Autonomy
€218B→€381B in 4 years (+83%). All 32 NATO at 2%. 800B EUR ReArm Europe. But PESCO: 50+ projects, few operational. 40% Fortress Europe, 30% Transatlantic.
Trump Third Ultimatum: Four Scenarios for Hormuz by April 7
Base rate: 35% of military threats executed, -30% per repeated deadline. Partial strikes (40%), full escalation (25%), extension (25%), deal (10%). Six predictions Brier-scored April 15.
Ukraine Ceasefire Architecture: Why Current Proposals Will Fail
Security guarantees = central unresolved problem. Minsk-1 collapsed in weeks, Minsk-2 never implemented. 40% fragile armistice, 30% frozen conflict, 15% comprehensive peace.
April 3, 2026
China Digital Human Regulation: Global AI Governance Scenarios
CAC bans AI virtual intimate relationship rules for minors. Mandatory labeling. 40% selective adoption, 30% strict global regulation. 515M+ AI users affected.