Insights
Daily geopolitical scenarios with structured uncertainty, multi-perspective analysis, and publicly scored accuracy. For executives, investors, and policymakers who need numbers, not opinions.
Iran-Trump War: What Happens by April 14?
Post-Kharg prediction. 35% power plants hit (full escalation), 30% Trump declares victory, 20% Iran major retaliation. Power plants = the war-crime threshold. Applying lessons from our first scored prediction. 5 predictions tracked.
Today — April 7, 2026
Iran-Trump War: What Happens by April 14?
Post-Kharg. 35% power plants hit, 30% Trump declares victory, 20% Iran retaliates. Power plants = war-crime threshold. 5 predictions tracked.
What We Got Right & Wrong: Trump's Iran Ultimatum
First scored prediction. Partial escalation correct. Hit Rate 100%. Log Loss 0.916 — right direction, under-confident. Three lessons learned.
April 6, 2026
Quebec 2026 Election: CAQ Collapse — Who Forms Government?
CAQ: 90 seats → 9% polls. PQ-PLQ tied at 33%. PQ minority 35%, PQ majority 30%, PLQ 22%. Sovereignty question is key wildcard.
North Korean Succession: Kim Ju-ae as Designated Heir
Kim Ju-ae at 35% — highest single scenario. Base rates: 3% female succession, 12% child heirs, 29% regency survival. Five scenarios, 4 predictions tracked.
April 5, 2026
Trump's Third Ultimatum: Four Scenarios for Hormuz by April 7
Base rate: 35% of military threats executed, -30% per repeated deadline. Partial strikes (40%), full escalation (25%), extension (25%), deal (10%). Urea +15% central. Six predictions Brier-scored April 15.
Ukraine Ceasefire Architecture: Why Current Proposals Will Fail
Security guarantees = central unresolved problem. Minsk-1 collapsed in weeks, Minsk-2 never implemented. 40% fragile armistice (6-12mo), 30% frozen conflict, 15% comprehensive peace, 15% temporary truce.
Europe's Sovereignty Turn: Four Scenarios for Defense Autonomy
€218B→€381B in 4 years (+83%). All 32 NATO at 2%. 800B EUR ReArm Europe. But PESCO: 50+ projects, few operational. 40% Fortress Europe, 30% Transatlantic Reaffirmation, 20% Stalled, 10% Realignment.
China's Rare Earth Leverage: Four Supply Chain Warfare Scenarios
94% of permanent magnet production. 70% of refining. Extraterritorial controls. 40% trade war revival (rare earths +50-100%), 30% supply chain realignment, 20% concessions, 10% tech breakthrough.
China's Digital Human Regulation: Four Scenarios for Global AI Governance
CAC bans AI "virtual intimate relationships" for minors. Mandatory labeling. 40% selective adoption, 30% strict global regulation, 20% minimal adoption, 10% ethical movement. 515M+ AI users affected.